王文才1,罗新旗1,李晓波2,李岩1,郭东旭1
(1.内蒙古科技大学矿业研究院，内蒙古包头，014010；2山西晋城无烟煤矿业集团有限责任公司，山西晋城，048000）
中图分类号：TD712.5 文献标识码：A
关键词：综采工作面；相对瓦斯涌出量；灰色模型；残差；预测
摘要：本文以灰色模型GM(1,1)为基础，对赵庄煤矿综采工作面的相对瓦斯涌出量进行了灰色预测和精度检验，并利用残差灰色模型对预测结果进行了修正。结果表明，灰色预测模型所需建模信息少，运算方便，模型预测精度高，是处理小样本预测问题的有效工具；当预测结果不满足精度要求时，还可以建立残差灰色模型对预测结果进行修正，从而进一步提高预测结果精度；在预测煤层相对瓦斯涌出量时，能达到较高的精度，可以满足工程技术的要求。
Using grey model to forecast the relative gasemission from the fully mechanized working face
WANGWen-cai1，LUO Xin-qi1，LI Xiao-bo2，LI Yan1，GUO Dong-xu1
（1.MiningResearch Institute, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou014010,China; 2 .Shanxi Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group Co.Ltd,Shanxi Jincheng048 000,China）
Key Words:fully mechanized working face；relative gas emission；grey model；residuals；predict
Abstract:Based on the grey model GM (1, 1) ,the relative gas emission from the fully mechanized coal face of Zhao-zhuang minewas predicted , and the predicted results are modified by using the residualgrey model. It shows that the grey prediction model requires less modelinginformation while operating more conveniently ,with high prediction accuracy , whichis an effective tool for dealing with small sample prediction. When thepredicted results did not meet the requirements for precision, the residualgray model can also be established to modify the forecasting results , so as toimprove the prediction accuracy further. In predicting the relative gasemission of the coal seam, higher precision can be achieved, satisfying therequirement of engineering.