基于灰色理论GM(1,1)模型的中长期电力负荷预测研究
张玉欣，白晶*
（北华大学 电气信息工程学院，吉林吉林 132021）
关键词：中长期电力负荷，预测，灰色理论，GM(1,1)模型
中图分类号：TM714文献标识码：A
摘要：中长期电力负荷精准预测是高效地完成电力系统规划的基础。本文以灰色理论GM(1,1)模型为基础，建立了中长期电力负荷预测模型，该模型所需要的数据量小且样本分布不需要有规律性，以吉林省2001年~2011年年用电统计量作为样本对模型进行训练与预测分析，仿真实验结果表明本文所建模型预测准确率较高，对未来电力系统规划有积极的指导作用。
Researchon medium and long term powerload forecasting based on greytheory GM(1,1) model
ZHANGYuxin, BAI Jing*
School of Electric and Information Engineering ,Beihua University, Jilin ,132021,China
Key words: medium and long term power load, forecasting,grey theory，GM(1,1)model
Abstract: The efficient completion of power systemplanning is based on theaccurateforecasting of middle and long term power load. The forecasting model of mediumand long term power load was established using the grey theory GM (1, 1) modelas the foundation. The amount of samples data required by the model is smalland it doesn't need to have the samples regularly distributed. The 2001~2011 annualelectricity statistics in Jilin province was used as a sample to carry out themodel trainning and forecast analysis.Simulation results show that the model’sforecasting accuracy is high, and the forecasting result may provide positiveguidance to the power system planning for the future .