余庆丰，张晓宇，朱桂清
(61764部队，三亚572000，840089156@qq.com)
关键词：高能粒子流；辐照强度；风险预判；Markov过程
中图分类号：TL8 文献标识码：A
摘 要：针对高能粒子流对卫星造成不利辐照影响的现状，定量地评估了卫星辐照强度变化趋势，实现对辐照强度变化趋势的概率预测。预测结果为卫星设计人员提供了卫星风险预判能力。为了更准确地进行评估，提出了基于Markov过程的评估模型，并对评估模型进行验算。验算结果表明：卫星面临的辐照强度变化趋势与高能粒子流的强度和卫星的角速度有关。
Based on Markov Process Radiant Intensity Forecastof Satellites
YUQing-feng, ZHANG Xiao-yu, ZHU Gui-qing
(TheUnit of 61764, Sanya 572000, China)
Key words: High energy particles streaming; Radiant intensity; Predict risk;Markov process
Abstract: The trend of the radiant intensity strength of satellites was assessedand the probability of the radiant intensity trends were forecasted ,for thesake of high energy particles streaming affecting satellites. The forecastresult may provide satellite designers with the capacity to predict the risks ofsatellites.The evaluation model was proposed based on Markov process in orderto assess the risks more accurately, and the model was checked. The checkingresult shows that the radiant intensity trends are decided by the angularvelocity of satellites and the intensity of the high-energy particles streaming.